DEB's "BOOK" on the Super Bowl

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Hello everyone..

Below are my thoughts about the upcoming Super Bowl with who I like and the reasons why, personally I am not buying into the Belichick mystique, is Belichick one of the best in the league? OF COURSE he is...but Philly HC Andy Reid is no slouch either.

With HC Andy Reid leading the charge these Eagles have actually won more games since the start of the 2000 season than any other team in the NFL, a side by side comparision shows that Philly has gone 66-25 over this time frame while the patriots have gone 61-27, the difference is that the patriots have two SB wins while the Eagles have three NFC Championship losses.

What has made the patriots so successful is the patience that they play with, HC Belichick is not a football god or anything of the sort, he actually doesn't do anything different than any other HC with regard to putting 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run and puts 8 or 9 in coverage to stop the pass.

What makes Belichick so good is his attention to detail, the assistants that he has in Weis and Crennell, and the QB he had under center, like any other head coach Belichick harps on not making the big mistake and thus not beating themselves, instilling a sense of patience has allowed the patriots to make a living off the mistakes of other teams....and it certainly helps to have a little luck on your side as well!!

Look at the patriots Super Bowl run of 2001, they were losing 13-10 at home in a driving snow storm and were all but defeated by Oakland, Raider CB Charles Woodson hits Brady and the ball pops loose with Woodson making the recovery, if the play stands Oakland advances to the AFC Championship game...instead we found out about the "Tuck Rule" which allowed the patriots to keep the ball and kick the tying FG to send the game into OT where they won the coin toss and kicked the winning FG.

In the 2001 Super Bowl the patriots needed a 48 yard FG as time ran out to defeat St Louis, the patriots were 14 point underdogs but made up the difference by not turning the ball over while forcing the Lambs to turn the ball over three times.

In last years Super Bowl the patriots were installed as 7 point favs ( just like this year ) but Carolina was able to stay in the game by limiting their mistakes as each team committed just one turnover apiece, the end result is that the patriots once again needed a FG as time ran out to win 32-29.

A look at this years playoffs show that the patriots had a combined T/O ratio of +7 against the Colts and Steelers and have not turned the ball over once themselves, meanwhile, the Eagles came out of their two playoff games with a T/O ratio of +2...this could lead to a sense of "False Security" by the patriots should the tables be turned in this years Super Bowl.

This years Super Bowl reminds me alot of the Tampa Bay/Oakland matchup of a couple years ago, the Raiders were said to be the more balanced team offensively and defensively and Oakland QB Rich Gannon was said to be unflappable ( like Brady ) in leading an offense that had won 9 of their previous 10 games entering the SB.

Tampa Bay was not given a chance because they had a lackluster running game and a so so offense devoid of any star power, the Bucs were called a "One Trick Pony" by the media because the only thing they had going for them was their defense.

We now know of course that Tampa Bay pulled the upset over Oakland and intercepted Raider QB Rich Gannon 5 times in that game with three of the INT's returned for TD's enroute to a huge 48-21 win, the real stars of that game turned out to be the defensive secondary of the Bucs led by Dexter Jackson who won the MVP.

Am I predicting that the same thing will happen this year? Of course not, but I really wouldn't be surprised if it did because this years Eagle team is similar to that Tampa team with regard to having a veteran QB under center to limit mistakes and a defensive secondary that ranks near the top in the NFL.

The Raiders entered that contest against Tampa Bay a bit too cocky after breezing thru the playoffs with wins over the Jets ( 30-10 ) and over the Titans ( 41-24 ) and like the patriots this year had been the beneficiaries of a huge edge in the T/O ratio department during their playoff run.

The Eagles this year have been very proficient in limiting their mistakes as they have accumulated a T/O ratio of +8 this year including playoffs and Eagle QB Donovan McNabb actually has better overall numbers than patriot QB Tom Brady with regard to McNabb's TD to INT ratio of 35 to 8 versus Brady's 31 to 14, McNabb has a superior completion percentage over Brady of 63.9% to 61.3% and McNabb has a better passer rating of 105.3 to Brady's 94.1.

McNabb will be facing a patriot defensive secondary that is ranked 17th in the NFL, meanwhile Brady will face an Eagle defensive secondary that has three pro bowlers and attained a ranking of 7th in the NFL, the key for the Eagles will be to remain patient and limit their mistakes, if the Eagles can do this I believe they have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.

PHILLY +7 for 3 units....UNDER 48 for 1 unit

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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Deb Deb Deb........I tried to save your money in the AFC Championship game and you didn't listen to me there, and I see the Super Bowl will be no different.

I guess it's like being a parent--sometimes you have to let your kids make mistakes before they learn. GL
 

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Deb Deb Deb........I tried to save your money in the AFC Championship game and you didn't listen to me there, and I see the Super Bowl will be no different.

I guess it's like being a parent--sometimes you have to let your kids make mistakes before they learn. GL

Hello Grogan...

You are of course correct in that I was on the wrong side in the AFC Championship game with regard to going against the patriots, however, if you are going to hold that against me you really should give me credit for having the OVER in that game as well as having Philly over Atlanta...meaning that I went 2-1 ATS overall in the Championship round.

Apparently by your comments you like the patriots -7, that's well and good as you are entitled to your opinions just as I am entitled to my opinions, the difference appears to be that I have layed the ground work as to WHY I am backing the Eagles in this contest while you appear to be backing the patriots without knowing why or without being able to make a case for your position.

Please Please Please...In the future it would be extremely helpful to me as well as to everyone here on this great forum if you would at least ATTEMPT to handicap the game itself and thus be able to rationalize the reasons surrounding your selection...instead of trying to pose as someone's "Daddy".

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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Attempt to handicap?? I've posted about a half a dozen items on this game in the thread I started, take a look. I was being lighthearted about it, but since you're challenging me, I have to say I'm not sure exactly what points you're making on this game. Let's see........


Hello everyone..

Below are my thoughts about the upcoming Super Bowl with who I like and the reasons why, personally I am not buying into the Belichick mystique, is Belichick one of the best in the league? OF COURSE he is...but Philly HC Andy Reid is no slouch either.

Point #1: Andy Reid is no slouch.

With HC Andy Reid leading the charge these Eagles have actually won more games since the start of the 2000 season than any other team in the NFL, a side by side comparision shows that Philly has gone 66-25 over this time frame while the patriots have gone 61-27, the difference is that the patriots have two SB wins while the Eagles have three NFC Championship losses.

What has made the patriots so successful is the patience that they play with, HC Belichick is not a football god or anything of the sort, he actually doesn't do anything different than any other HC with regard to putting 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run and puts 8 or 9 in coverage to stop the pass.

What makes Belichick so good is his attention to detail, the assistants that he has in Weis and Crennell, and the QB he had under center, like any other head coach Belichick harps on not making the big mistake and thus not beating themselves, instilling a sense of patience has allowed the patriots to make a living off the mistakes of other teams....and it certainly helps to have a little luck on your side as well!!

Don't see any additional points in these 3 paragraphs.

Look at the patriots Super Bowl run of 2001, they were losing 13-10 at home in a driving snow storm and were all but defeated by Oakland, Raider CB Charles Woodson hits Brady and the ball pops loose with Woodson making the recovery, if the play stands Oakland advances to the AFC Championship game...instead we found out about the "Tuck Rule" which allowed the patriots to keep the ball and kick the tying FG to send the game into OT where they won the coin toss and kicked the winning FG.

In the 2001 Super Bowl the patriots needed a 48 yard FG as time ran out to defeat St Louis, the patriots were 14 point underdogs but made up the difference by not turning the ball over while forcing the Lambs to turn the ball over three times.

In last years Super Bowl the patriots were installed as 7 point favs ( just like this year ) but Carolina was able to stay in the game by limiting their mistakes as each team committed just one turnover apiece, the end result is that the patriots once again needed a FG as time ran out to win 32-29.


Recap of Patriot's Super Bowl victories--doesn't really help us with this game.


A look at this years playoffs show that the patriots had a combined T/O ratio of +7 against the Colts and Steelers and have not turned the ball over once themselves, meanwhile, the Eagles came out of their two playoff games with a T/O ratio of +2...this could lead to a sense of "False Security" by the patriots should the tables be turned in this years Super Bowl.


I'm not sure what this means.


This years Super Bowl reminds me alot of the Tampa Bay/Oakland matchup of a couple years ago, the Raiders were said to be the more balanced team offensively and defensively and Oakland QB Rich Gannon was said to be unflappable ( like Brady ) in leading an offense that had won 9 of their previous 10 games entering the SB.

Tampa Bay was not given a chance because they had a lackluster running game and a so so offense devoid of any star power, the Bucs were called a "One Trick Pony" by the media because the only thing they had going for them was their defense.

We now know of course that Tampa Bay pulled the upset over Oakland and intercepted Raider QB Rich Gannon 5 times in that game with three of the INT's returned for TD's enroute to a huge 48-21 win, the real stars of that game turned out to be the defensive secondary of the Bucs led by Dexter Jackson who won the MVP.


Lengthy detour to recap TB/Oakland Super Bowl.


Am I predicting that the same thing will happen this year? Of course not, but I really wouldn't be surprised if it did because this years Eagle team is similar to that Tampa team with regard to having a veteran QB under center to limit mistakes and a defensive secondary that ranks near the top in the NFL.

Limiting mistakes is not what I think of when I think of McNabb. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:place></st1:City> probably dropped 3-4 interceptions last week.

The Raiders entered that contest against Tampa Bay a bit too cocky after breezing thru the playoffs with wins over the Jets ( 30-10 ) and over the Titans ( 41-24 ) and like the patriots this year had been the beneficiaries of a huge edge in the T/O ratio department during their playoff run.

OK.....but nobody would say the Patriots are "too cocky" right now, so not sure I see the point.

The Eagles this year have been very proficient in limiting their mistakes as they have accumulated a T/O ratio of +8 this year including playoffs and Eagle QB Donovan McNabb actually has better overall numbers than patriot QB Tom Brady with regard to McNabb's TD to INT ratio of 35 to 8 versus Brady's 31 to 14, McNabb has a superior completion percentage over Brady of 63.9% to 61.3% and McNabb has a better passer rating of 105.3 to Brady's 94.1.

The QB edge in this game is clear, and it's not in the Eagles' favor--McNabb's 2.6% edge in completion percentage aside, of course.

McNabb will be facing a patriot defensive secondary that is ranked 17th in the NFL, meanwhile Brady will face an Eagle defensive secondary that has three pro bowlers and attained a ranking of 7th in the NFL, the key for the Eagles will be to remain patient and limit their mistakes, if the Eagles can do this I believe they have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.

Agreed that Philly has to limit their mistakes to have any chance to stay close, but that doesn't really work as an argument for picking them.

PHILLY +7 for 3 units....UNDER 48 for 1 unit

take care and good luck!


Deb
<!-- / message -->Good luck to you too.
 

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Grogan said:
The QB edge in this game is clear, and it's not in the Eagles' favor--McNabb's 2.6% edge in completion percentage aside, of course.

Grogan, take a look at that last sentence that you wrote. It doesn't have any validation with it. How can you make a statement and not explain why it is so.

After reading Deb's thoughtful, insightful, value-added analysis, I began to think that maybe the Eagles are the pick in this game. Then when you "countered" her thoughts with thoughts of your own, I began to lean even further in her direction. How could you not figure out what she meant by each sentence? I thought it was very clear in which direction she is going. You are providing absolutely no substance in your evaluation. They are empty statements. This makes me wonder if there are true, logical reasons to believe that the Patriots are the ones likely to cover the spread. If there are, then you clearly don't have them or you choose not to share them (why you wouldn't share them on a sports betting forum ... I have no idea).

As far as the Falcons dropping 3 or 4 INTs, how many did they actually drop? I remember them dropping one when the Eagles were in the red zone. So, do you want to modify the statistics that you are using to analyze the game??? You've got to be kidding me!!! Why don't we tack on another 30 yards rushing per game for both Corey Dillon and Brian Westbrook and add some points to random teams when evaluating the previous playoff games.

Did you ever think that some QBs may be better at avoiding INTs than others? Isn't is glaringly obvious that McNabb is better at avoiding INTs than Brady this season? As long as opposing teams are dropping INTs, they don't count. Is it possible that McNabb is throwing the ball in such a way and at a certain place where the defender could get his hands on it, but not likely be able to catch it?

These aren't difficult concepts to understand.

FYI, I am leaning toward betting on the Patriots in the Super Bowl at this point in time, but things could change later on in the week. I agree with your pick at this point, but your response to Deb's post just seemed like it came from WAY out in left field. It seemed like you are a Pat's fan more than a logical handicapper...

Talking about teams dropping massive amounts of INTs and twisting history around...

Scott
 

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Mmmm ... donuts

Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2005



Last year the Cold, Hard Football Facts proved true an age-old football aphorism – “defense wins championships.”

We discovered that the Super Bowl team with the better scoring defense won 25 times in 33 games since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Following New England’s victory over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, teams with the stingier scoring defense are now a nifty 26-8 in post-merger Super Bowls and 28-10 in all Super Bowls.

The success of better defenses is a fat-filled morsel to munch on for stat-starved angry trolls when attempting to determine which team that has the upper hand in Super Bowl XXXIX. But this season it’s about as fulfilling as a single measly Munchkin. After all, New England and Philly enter Super Bowl XXXIX after regular seasons in which each team surrendered 260 points (16.2 PPG), good enough for second in the NFL behind Pittsburgh (251 points, or 15.7 PPG). It’s the first time in Super Bowl history that two teams enter the game with defenses that were equally stout.

Which defense is truly stronger? Other indicators don’t provide much help:

• Philly allows just 4.9 yards per play (t-6th in the NFL) to New England’s 5.0 yards per play (t-9th)

• New England allows 310.8 yards per game (9th) to Philly’s 319.7 yards per game (10th)

• New England is stronger against the run (98.2 yards per game vs. 118.9 yards per game)

• Philly is better against the pass (200.8 yards per game to 212.5 yards per game)

There is, of course, only one way to resolve the issue. We dipped our warm, fluffy, fact-filled donuts into a sugary coating of pigskin minutiae. We pulled out something sweet that the angry trolls can sink their teeth into and savor when analyzing Super Bowl XXXIX.

We went through each team’s schedule and looked at the quality of the offenses New England and Philly faced week after week. Here’s what we found:

• New England faced five top-10 scoring offenses – Indy, Buffalo (twice), Kansas City and Cincinnati

• Philly faced three top-10 scoring offenses – Minnesota, Green Bay and Cincinnati

• New England’s top offensive opponents were Indy (No. 1, 32.6 PPG) and Kansas City (No. 2, 30.2 PPG)

• Philly’s top offensive opponents were Green Bay (No. 5, 26.5 PPG) and Minnesota (No. 6, 25.3 PPG)

• New England’s average opponent ranked 16th in scoring offense

• Philly’s average opponent ranked 22nd in scoring offense

• New England played two games against the two best offenses in football

• Philly played three games against the two worst offenses in football (Washington twice and Chicago)

• New England’s opponents scored 5,583 points this season, or 21.8 points per game

• Philly’s opponents scored 5,041 points this season, or 19.8 points per game

New England, in other words, faced a much tougher gauntlet of offensive opponents this season. Philly, for example, held teams 3.6 points per game below their average scoring output. New England, meanwhile, held teams to 5.6 points per game below their average scoring output.

The Patriots, in other words, have been more impressive on defense when we consider the quality of the offenses they faced this season.

However, Philly's D played its worst game of the season in the regular-season finale when it sat many of its top players and surrendered 38 points to Cincinnati. Had Philly committed itself to winning the game, it's very likely it would have entered Super Bowl XXXIX with the better scoring defense -- and the weight of Super Bowl history on its side.

Here are the complete regular-season schedules for each team, with the average scoring output of their opponents and the points scored against each Super Bowl participant.

NEW ENGLAND

<TABLE width=512 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=100>Opponent</TD><TD width=100>PPG</TD><TD width=100>Rank</TD><TD width=100>Pts. vs. NE </TD><TD width=100>difference</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Indy</TD><TD>32.6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>-8.6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Arizona</TD><TD>17.8</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>-5.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Buffalo</TD><TD>24.7</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-7.7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Miami</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>-7.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Seattle</TD><TD>23.2</TD><TD>t-11</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>-3.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Jets </TD><TD>20.8</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-13.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Pittsburgh</TD><TD>23.2</TD><TD>t-11</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>+11.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>St. Louis </TD><TD>19.9</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>+2.1</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Buffalo</TD><TD>24.7</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-18.7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>KC</TD><TD>30.2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>-11.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>19.8</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-16.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cleveland</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>-2.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>23.4</TD><TD>t-4</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>+4.6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Miami</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>+11.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Jets </TD><TD>20.8</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-13.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>San Fran</TD><TD>16.2</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-9.2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



PHILADELPHIA

<TABLE width=512 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=100>Opponent</TD><TD width=100>PPG</TD><TD width=100>Rank</TD><TD width=100>Pts. vs. Philly </TD><TD width=100>difference</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Giants </TD><TD>18.9</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-1.9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Minnesota</TD><TD>25.3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>-9.3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Detroit</TD><TD>18.5</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>-5.5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Chicago</TD><TD>14.4</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>-5.4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Carolina</TD><TD>22.2</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>-14.2</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cleveland</TD><TD>17.2</TD><TD>t-27</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>+13.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>19.8</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>-9.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Pittsburgh</TD><TD>23.2</TD><TD>t-11</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>+3.8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dallas</TD><TD>18.3</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>+2.7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Washington</TD><TD>15.0</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-9.0</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>N.Y. Giants </TD><TD>18.9</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>-12.9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Green Bay </TD><TD>26.5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>-9.5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Washington</TD><TD>15.0</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>-1</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dallas</TD><TD>18.3</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>-11.3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>St. Louis </TD><TD>19.9</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>+0.1</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>23.4</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>+14.6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>





Don't forget Deb12 the Eagles beat two dome teams at home in the playoffs.
Pats basically shutout the best offense in NFL.And completley disemboweled a 15-1 team on the road....The last 3 scores the Pats beat playoff caliber teams were Jets 23-7,Colts 20-3,Steelers 41-27.Pats are peaking.
Eagles are 9-0 after a bye....but they have never played a team that is off a bye at the same time...Pats have on several occasions.

Eagles play in the NFC and in a weak division,thats not their fault or a put down.But their high ranked numbers are inflated becuase of it.
I'll use a term I used before.
Pedigree
Pats 27-17
MVP Corey Dillion
 

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First of all, take a deep breath and settle down a bit.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

I see you really liked Deb’s “thoughtful, insightful, value-added” (gee, did I miss anything? Is it nutritious, too?) analysis, and that’s swell. Two things on that—number one, as I said to Deb, I’ve made several posts on the board (see my thread) that other posters—many who disagree with me, by the way—have noted are logical and persuasive. (They include points on coaching, QB, the Pats ability to stop Philly’s running game, experience, etc., etc., etc.) And since Deb made the (incorrect) point that I hadn’t handicapped the game, I went through her post, after looking at it and realizing that she had virtually no analysis of this game—just paragraph after paragraph of the Patriots’ Super Bowl wins and (strangely) a recap of the Bucs/Oakland Super Bowl.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Now, of course, you’re making the SAME point. Sigh. Anyway, looking at what you wrote, it appears to be more a criticism of my post than anything substantive on the game, other than a point about the quarterbacks. Let’s see: “McNabb is throwing the ball in such a way and at a certain place where the defender could get his hands on it, but not likely be able to catch it. These aren't difficult concepts to understand.”<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Actually, I would say this mystically throwing “in such a way” that his passes can’t be caught IS a fairly difficult concept to understand, in that it’s nonsensical.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>Look, here’s the deal. I only post here because posters in other sports have helped me make some money, and I’m looking to do the same. AND I enjoy the give & take, but don’t get all screechy on me. There are many good posters here, and on this game some great comments from a bunch of people to me (including El Iguana, Pam, and yes, even Sportsbet, who has a much different take on this game than me!)<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>

Fact is, on some posts there will be a shorthand—I’m not going to go into detailed analysis as to why you’re better off w/Brady than McNabb every time I mention it. If you want to bet that Brady throws more interceptions than McNabb this Sunday, let me know how much—I’ll take Brady in a heartbeat. If you watch both teams—which I have—you see that McNabb throws 3 or 4 passes a game that are pickable. (Here’s a guess—Asante Samuel gets one).<o:p></o:p>

<o:p></o:p>

Here’s a couple more points for ya. If I'm Philly's D, I don't let any receiver get behind safeties (the same technique Belichick employs), and also line the D-line to try and corral Dillon. This leaves short to medium range passes open to TEs and RBs and short routes for receivers. This way, no big passing play, and Dillon earns it. It forces Pats to be patient, and can cause fumbles (Dillon/Faulk) and make the Pats earn their way to points. If I'm Philly's O, hope to God that Donovan can scramble and make dump-off/medium throws consistently all day. Because I don't see any other way they can move the ball. I'd imagine that Bruschi spies Westbrook, with on the line bumps from Vrabel and McGinest.<o:p></o:p>
 

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Hello Grogan..

Out of curiosity did someone take a wizzzz in your corn flakes this morning? WTF is up with your attitude? Did I possibly offend you in some way or did I possibly challenge your manhood in someway by laying out points in my original written analysis that you apparently were not able to grasp and thus the reason that you made the statement of being my "Daddy"?

I'll try to explain things in simpler terms for you this time okay?

Alot of pundits in the media and other handicappers have pointed out the fact that the NFC has been a watered down conference over the past few years, this I agree with and this was quite apparent when looking at head to head meetings involving AFC and NFC teams this year as AFC squads went 44-20 straight up and 41-21-2 ATS in the 64 inter-conference games.

However, it must be taken into consideration that Philadelphia has been the "Cream of the crop" in the NFC since the year 2000 as evidenced by their win/loss record of 66-25 over this span which by the way is the best record of ANY team in the NFL over this time period, meanwhile, the patriots posted a record of 61-27 over the same time frame.

The patriots have won two Super Bowls during this time span while the Eagles lost three straight NFC Championships, in my original analysis I sited the patriots game versus the visiting Raiders to illustrate that "Luck" had played a role in the patriots rise because if not for the "Tuck Rule" Oakland probably would have won that game 13-10.

A look at the patriots two Super Bowl wins show that they were not exactly dominate wins by any stretch of the imagination as they needed last second FG's by Adam Vinateri to win each contest.

The point that I was trying to make and you apparently missed is that Philly HC Andy Reid is "No Slouch" compared to patriot HC Bill Belichick and Philly's assistant coaches are the equal of the patriots assistants, in this matchup BOTH teams have quality experienced QB's under center and BOTH QB's have shown the ability to limit mistakes this season, McNabb's passing numbers are actually better than Bradys and McNabb has the added ability to scramble for key first downs.

My reference to the Tampa Bay/Oakland Super Bowl was to illustrate the similarity of Tampa to this years Eagle team with regard to the Bucs being billed as having no running game ( like Philly ) and lacking in offensive firepower ( like Philly ) entering that SB contest against an Oakland team that had won 9 of their previous 10 games, Oakland was the media's ( and the public's ) clear choice because they looked unstoppable on both sides of the ball.

Tampa was not given a shot to win ( like these Eagles ) because they did not have a strong running game thru out the regular season ( like Philly ) and instead relied on a short passing game ( like Philly ), what was over looked by most was Tampa’s strong defense that featured a dominant defensive secondary ( like Philly )….the end result was a Tampa 48-21 upset win.

Another point that I made in my original analysis was the way that Oakland had breezed thru the playoffs in defeating the Jets 30-10 and dismantling the Titans 41-24 on their way to the SB, however, the Raiders were the beneficiaries of a T/O ratio of 6 to 2 in those games much the same way that this years patriots were the beneficiaries of a T/O ratio of 7 to 0 in their 20-3 win over the Colts and their 41-27 win over the Steelers.

Add it all up, stir it all around, and talk about it all you want...but in the overall scheme of things the patriots are clearly OVER-VALUED and should not be laying a full 7 points to such a successful and experienced team like Philadelphia, if the Eagles limit their mistakes and/or win the turnover battle an outright upset win would not surprise me in the least.

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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I was also on the Steelers. I could not pass up the 4-5 points in value. I factored in the "luck" that the Pats have had in previous triumphs as well. I also am probably going to wait and end up taking philly. I want to get the 7 at even or better. However, to say that you don't buy into the Belichick mystique is retarded. I have no rooting interest in the Pats or Belichick, in fact I am rooting against them so I don't have to deal with an extremely irratating chowder head, but he is the ******* man period. Jesus Christ could be on the other sideline and you couldn't say Belichick wouldn't have a chance. There is no argument here, you are just wrong if you don't consider the Belichick factor.

Tom Brady did not exactly light it up in college, you can make a reasonable argument that Belichick is behind his success. Not the other way around.

I don't think I am exactly original in any of my thoughts here, especially the one I am about to express. How many times do we have to make the point that "YOU MAKE YOUR OWN LUCK!" How about this one "LUCK IS WHERE PERSPERATION MEETS PREPERATION!"

I think Mcnabb is definitly something worth considering in this game. The presence of a competent QB could result in a cover. He is the reason I am going to close my eyes and take the 7. This game is Mcnabb v Belichick everything else is meaningless.
 

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I totally disagree with your reference to the Tampa-Oakland game and how it comes into play here. The reason other than their superb defense in winning that game was their coach Jon Gruden. Wouldn't he be a so called factor having coached Oakland the previous year.I would think he would be very familiar with all personnel,formations, tendencies and especially Qb Gannon. In my opinion his preparation and knowledge completely foiled the Raiders, not to mention any revenge towards Al Davis, his former boss.If Andy Reid had left the Pats organization like this you would have a valid point but last I checked he was losing another NFC final last year. With all that being said I wish you the best of luck in the SB.
 

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However, to say that you don't buy into the Belichick mystique is retarded. I have no rooting interest in the Pats or Belichick, in fact I am rooting against them so I don't have to deal with an extremely irratating chowder head, but he is the ******* man period. Jesus Christ could be on the other sideline and you couldn't say Belichick wouldn't have a chance. There is no argument here, you are just wrong if you don't consider the Belichick factor.

Hello TampaLuke..

Please explain to me exactly WHEN it was that Bill Belichick suddenly became "God-Like", a simple check backward in time shows that Belichick was Cleveland's HC for five years from 1991 to 1995 and totaled a win/loss record of 36-44 with only ONE winning season in his five years in Cleveland.

Belichick took over the patriots in 2000 and went 5-11 that year, in Belichick's five years with the patriots he has posted an overall mark of 55-27, add things up and you arrive with Belichicks total record as a head coach which is 91-71 for an overall winning percentage of 56.17%...not exactly "God-Like" in my opinion.

Interesting that you believe that Belichick made Brady and not visa-versa when clearly history shows that Belichick's success began when Brady took over the reins from Drew Bledsoe in 2001 which was the year that the patriots went 11-5 during the regular season and won the Super Bowl.

As I originally stated, Belichick doesn't do anything different than any other coach with regard to putting 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run or putting 8 or 9 in the box to stop the pass...Belichick is just better at paying attention to detail and drilling this mind-set into his players....much the same as Philly HC Andy Reid has been able to do with this Eagles.

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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I am OK with being wrong. I think the more reasonable argument is that Brady's success is dependent on Belichick. Belichick had Superbowl success as a coordinator. Parcells has not won one without Belichick, so I think it is reasonable to assume he was an integral part of that success. Brady had no success pre-Belichick.

The Pats do everything right, everything, everything..I mean every... you know what I mean but can it really be overstated? They didn't benefit from blockbuster trade like the Cowboys or an abundance of Hall of Fame offensive players like the 49ers or playing in the 70's like the Steelers. They are ruling in the age of parity. This is not an accident or a fluke and there is exactly one person who should get the bulk of credit.

You discounting his influence is only dangerous to yourself. I am going to bet the eagles but it is only because I "think" that is where I am going to some value. Like I said I am OK with being wrong and going against Belichick could be the wrong thing to do.
 

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Very entertaining and well researched facts/thoughts..nice to have these exchanges. After reading these thoughts you have pushed me to under the total 48 here in Vegas..we will see

Pam:party:
 

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Deb....

Actually, like I said, I made a lighthearted comment that you should listen to me to save yourself some money, which obviously upset you (and upset Trench, weirdly enough.) Because you said I wasn’t laying things out for you, I provided some more game analysis, and, frankly, your lack of same in your post.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

And sorry, this latest endless post doesn’t add much. The point I “apparently missed” that Reid is “no slouch?” No, I noted that one.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

As for the endless Tampa Bay/Oakland analogy, sorry, the comparison really doesn’t work for me at all. I saw that game as defense against offense, and thought <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tampa</st1:place></st1:City> was a no-brainer pick.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Over-value, right, you thought that about NE vs. Pitt. As I said, just trying to save you some money. Carry on, play ‘em as you’d like.<o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>

Take care and good luck!
 

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Deb

Way to go. I am a fan but really see a ML win here. I bet NE to win the Superbowl if you remember at +349 and The Eagles to win NFC -120. I have taken all that money and possible money and put it on the Eagle ml. Andy Reid off a bye is better than ever and We WIN!!
 

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i think its a no brainer. anyone could have gotten -4' or -5 on the afc teams before the championship games. i guarantee vegas looked at every matchup versus afc and nfc before they offered those lines. the line opened at -6' and now is at -7. if you want VALUE then the eagles is the play.

deb, you made some good points. i dont know if your tampa and oakland holds any water. i remember oak was without their center (robbins) on the day. i think it had some effect on the team and outcome. in my opinion.

i was the one that whizzed in his cereal. :103631605 sorry about that grogan!
 

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Did you ever think that some QBs may be better at avoiding INTs than others? Isn't is glaringly obvious that McNabb is better at avoiding INTs than Brady this season? As long as opposing teams are dropping INTs, they don't count. Is it possible that McNabb is throwing the ball in such a way and at a certain place where the defender could get his hands on it, but not likely be able to catch it?

These aren't difficult concepts to understand.

Hello trench1978..

Thank you for your kind words as they are very much appreciated, I couldn't agree more with your above statement as it does in fact matter where the QB is placing the ball with regard to which shoulder of the receiver he throws to as a means to protect the ball or how hard and with what velosity the QB throws the ball to the reciever which affects how quickly the ball arrives.

For one reason or another McNabb seems to have come into his own this season, McNabb has always had a very strong arm but his accuracy and decision making early in his career was very suspect, but the very same was also true of John Elway and Brett Favre in their early years as well.

I saw in another post somewhere where someone had made the statement that McNabb had a better year statisically speaking than Brady because Brady threw alot more passes this season which increased his likelyhood of being intercepted...really?

It never ceases to amaze me that people would make such statements without researching their facts first, a look at the final stats of both McNabb and Brady shows that McNabb completed 300 of 469 attempts ( 63.97% ) versus Brady who completed 288 of 474 attempts ( 60.76% ).

McNabb has also thrown for more total yardage 4341 to 4043 and has a higher yard/per attempt average of 8.21 to 7.75, including playoffs McNabb has a TD to INT ratio of 35 to 8 versus Brady's 31 to 14 and McNabb's passer rating of 105.3 is much better than Brady's 94.1....things that make you go hmmmmm.

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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I totally disagree with your reference to the Tampa-Oakland game and how it comes into play here. The reason other than their superb defense in winning that game was their coach Jon Gruden. Wouldn't he be a so called factor having coached Oakland the previous year.I would think he would be very familiar with all personnel,formations, tendencies and especially Qb Gannon.

Hello rod gozinya..

Thank you very much for your comments which are quite valid in nature, its true that Tampa HC Jon Gruden undoubtably knew the tendencies of Oakland because he had been their HC prior to taking over the Bucs, however, the same could be said of Oakland HC Bill Callahan who was Gruden's OC while Gruden was in Oakland...the point is that they BOTH knew each other with regard to what the other liked to do and how they would probably scheme.

Gruden was actually at a disadvantage in that matchup if you consider that he was in his first year at Tampa and had installed a totally new offense based on a short passing game, the mainstay of Tampa was their defense which featured a very strong defensive secondary and that was what I was drawing comparisons to with regard to this years Philly team.

Another point to consider is that these two teams have only met twice in regular season or post season play in the past ten years, they met in week two last year with the patriots winning 31-10 due to six Philly T/O's and they met in 1999 with Philly winning 24-9 due to seven patriot T/O's.

However, these teams have met each of the past three pre-seasons with two of the meetings taking place in Foxboro, the patriots went 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS in these three pre-season games with each contest coming in UNDER the total...which team would you think benefited the most from these three pre-season games?

A check of patriot HC Belichick's and HC Andy Reid's pre-season record entering this season shows that Belichick was 24-13 straight up and 22-14-1 ATS in past pre-seasons while Reid was 7-12 straight up and 9-10 ATS in past pre-seasons.

The point I am trying to make is that Belichick is so competitive in nature that he actually plays to win during the pre-season while Andy Reid could care less about meaningless games, another example is how Reid threw away the final two regular season games this year.

To me this means that Reid actually has better data to analyze in terms of matchups and how Belichick thinks and reacts that he can draw from in the four overall head to head meetings than visa versa, in other words, Andy Reid could very well use Belichick's aggressive and competitive nature against him...just an abstract way of looking at things I suppose!

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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Don't forget Deb12 the Eagles beat two dome teams at home in the playoffs.
Pats basically shutout the best offense in NFL.And completley disemboweled a 15-1 team on the road....The last 3 scores the Pats beat playoff caliber teams were Jets 23-7,Colts 20-3,Steelers 41-27.Pats are peaking.
Eagles are 9-0 after a bye....but they have never played a team that is off a bye at the same time...Pats have on several occasions.

Hello Patriot..

Thanks for posting the write-up from the Hard Cold Facts website, I saw a post you had made earlier in the year in which you referenced that particular website, I followed the link you provided and found the site to be very informative although also very homerish with regard to their patriot coverage, they had alot of interesting articles on their site which were very well written and quite analytical in nature.

With regard to your above statement concerning who played who in the playoffs this year, you are entirely correct in that the Eagles faced two dome teams in the playoffs and one of them ( Minny ) actually had a regular season record of only 8-8!!

However, the patriots also faced a dome team when the Colts visited Foxboro, a check of the final season NFL rankings show that the Colts and Vikings were quite similar statisically with regard to Indy having an overall NFL offensive ranking of #2 and were #1 in passing offense, meanwhile, the Vikes had the NFL's #4 ranked offense and were #2 in passing offense.

In terms of defense the Colts had the NFL's 28th ranked D while the Vikes had the NFL's 29th ranked D....the patriots defeated the Colts by 17 points while the Eagles defeated the Vikes by 13 points, to me this comparison of who played who is a wash.

The patriots did have a rougher row to hoe in traveling to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game while the Eagles stayed home to face Atlanta
 

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Hey patriot..

I accidently hit the "Submit Key" and then attempted to finished my above post but time had expired...thus the rest of the post is listed below.
______________________________________________________________

In terms of defense the Colts had the NFL's 28th ranked D while the Vikes had the NFL's 29th ranked D....the patriots defeated the Colts by 17 points while the Eagles defeated the Vikes by 13 points, to me this comparison of who played who is a wash.

The patriots did have a rougher row to hoe in traveling to Pittsburgh to face the AFC's #1 seed in the AFC Championship game while the Eagles stayed home to face Atlanta who was the NFC's #2 seed in the NFC Championship.

But oddly enough the Falcon offense was statisically similar to the Steeler offense in that Atlanta had the NFL's #1 ranked rushing attack while Pittsburgh had the NFL's #2 ranked rushing attack and BOTH Atlanta and Pittsburgh were ranked at the bottom of the league in passing as Pittsburgh was 28th and Atlanta was 30th.

Defensively speaking Pittsburgh ranked much higher than Atlanta but the Steeler's advantage on defense was offset by FOUR offensive turnovers which led to the patriots having a T/O ratio of +4 in that game, meanwhile, the Eagles also benefited by having a T/O ratio of +1 versus the Falcons.

Thus the patriots were aided by being on the plus side of three more T/O's in their game versus the Steelers but yet the Eagles defeated Atlanta by 17 points while the patriots defeated Pittsburgh by 14 points...once again a wash to me.

I could be totally wrong and the Eagles may play like sh^t and get waxed in this game, but when handicapping games its all about finding "Value" and in that regard I just do not see enough of a difference in these two teams to justify making the Eagles a 7 point dog.

take care and good luck!

Deb
 

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